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何伟文:进出口贸易面临的困难是暂时的 He Weiwen: difficulties in import and export trade are temporary
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何伟文:进出口贸易面临的困难是暂时的 He Weiwen: difficulties in import and export trade are temporary

【摘要】:
何伟文:进出口贸易面临的困难是暂时的作者:何伟文为防控新冠病毒肺炎疫情,一些国家和地区相继对中国大陆采取管制措施。在贸易领域,印尼贸易部长阿格斯近日表示正考虑是否对中国商品实施进口限制。所有这些,自然引起对2020年中国进出口贸易前景的担忧。笔者认为,旅行限制对进出口贸易影响有限。首先,这些限制针对的是人员旅行,不是货物。一季度进出口主要是履行已有合同,货物出入通关还没有新的重大限制。但人员旅行限
何伟文:进出口贸易面临的困难是暂时的
作者:何伟文
为防控新冠病毒肺炎疫情,一些国家和地区相继对中国大陆采取管制措施。在贸易领域,印尼贸易部长阿格斯近日表示正考虑是否对中国商品实施进口限制。所有这些,自然引起对2020年中国进出口贸易前景的担忧。
笔者认为,旅行限制对进出口贸易影响有限。首先,这些限制针对的是人员旅行,不是货物。一季度进出口主要是履行已有合同,货物出入通关还没有新的重大限制。
但人员旅行限制对下半年贸易合同的洽谈签约有不利影响。虽然跨境电商比重日益提高,但大宗国际商品交易,特别是机电设备、汽车及许多耐用消费品的成交,很大程度上发生在世界公认的行业性国际博览会上,往往需要现场考察洽谈。重大工程的设备买卖,需要通过公开的国际招标。
如果这种限制持续到春季广交会,会影响到参会外商数和成交额,但也只是部分受到影响。世界知名国际专业交易会最多的德国,并未实施这种限制。
其次,由于国际贸易利益方包括中外双方,中国进出口受阻,贸易对方也会遭受损失。因此,不光中国自己,中国的海外贸易伙伴也会努力克服并推动取消旅游限制,并强烈反对贸易限制。
如果新冠病毒疫情能在3月底前明显缓解,估计部分国家会放宽旅游限制,实施贸易限制的可能性则更小。因此,关键仍在中国能否早日有效防控并战胜疫情。
疫情对进出口贸易的影响也是暂时的。疫情当前,人民生命健康利益高于进出口利益。因此不同方式的隔离、推迟复工、减少接触,即便暂时影响生产和贸易,也不能放松。
但另一方面,按照现有安排,企业9日复工后,现有合同的履行完全可以照样进行,或少部分因不可抗力推迟。即便企业放假,许多港口货物出运依然没有停止,进口更没有停止,大量急需的医护用品和国外捐赠物资经海关源源入境。
2003年“非典”时,二季度进出口贸易明显放缓。但疫情结束后的下半年迅速增长。全年进出口贸易额比上年增长37.1%,为上世纪80年代以后的最高增速,至今也未被打破。
当然,我们不是要与2003年比较增速,只是证明疫情结束后通常会出现强劲反弹的态势。关键仍然是疫情持续时间多长。如果二季度开始恢复正常,全年进出口总额将不会有明显影响。
商品的生产和进出口发展有其客观规律。作为承担者的企业,只能在产品的生产或贸易中实现社会扩大再生产,否则自身的生存和发展都成问题。自然或社会灾害后,企业也必须迅速弥补,因此生产和贸易往往反弹。
但光看到一般规律还不够。眼下最迫切的问题是迅速而精准地扶助生产和贸易企业,特别是中小企业。由于疫情影响,许多企业停产停工,没有收入,但员工工资照发,厂房办公室和设备维护费用不能少,房租利息负担照旧。资金链的紧张,直接影响复工后的原材料采购和生产,影响支付进口预付定金的能力。
更值得注意的是,在新冠病毒疫情发生前,我国整个工业生产利润已经下降,成本上升,给进出口贸易经营带来很大困难。因此迫切需要政府在财税、信贷、社会福利及其他方面给予支持,并且这种支持只能一地一策、一企一策,还必须兼顾当前和长远,不能饮鸩止渴、大幅增加企业负债率。
在全力做好国内工作的同时,也需要做好对外工作。国际货币基金组织预计,2020年世界经济贸易会有“非常呆滞”的暂时回稳。全球GDP将增长3.3%,高于2019年的2.9%;世界商品和服务贸易量增速将从2019年1.0%的极低水平回升到2.9%。
但该组织警告,这种回稳是脆弱的,各种单边关税和限制,贸易紧张以及金融市场风险的积聚,随时可能带来新的风险。多边贸易体制正面临存亡关头。我们的外部环境并不宽松。因此,我们必须既打赢国内疫情防控战,又打赢对外维护多边主义、稳定国际贸易环境之战。
作者何伟文系前驻旧金山、纽约总领馆经济商务参赞,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员
He Weiwen: difficulties in import and export trade are temporary
Author: he Weiwen
In order to prevent and control the new coronavirus pneumonia, some countries and regions have taken control measures on the mainland of China. In the area of trade, Indonesian trade minister AGUS recently said he was considering whether to impose import restrictions on Chinese goods. All of this naturally raises concerns about China's import and export prospects in 2020.
In my opinion, the impact of travel restrictions on import and export trade is limited. First of all, these restrictions are aimed at the travel of people, not goods. In the first quarter, the import and export mainly fulfilled the existing contracts, and there are no new major restrictions on the import and export of goods.
However, the travel restrictions have a negative impact on the negotiation and signing of trade contracts in the second half of the year. Although the proportion of cross-border e-commerce is increasing day by day, the bulk international commodity transactions, especially the transactions of mechanical and electrical equipment, automobiles and many durable consumer goods, to a large extent, take place in the internationally recognized industrial international expositions, often requiring on-site inspection and negotiation. The purchase and sale of equipment for major projects shall be conducted through open international bidding.
If this restriction continues to the Canton Fair in spring, it will affect the number of foreign businessmen and turnover, but only partially. Germany, which has the largest number of world-renowned international trade fairs, has not imposed such restrictions.
Secondly, because the interests of international trade include both China and foreign countries, China's import and export are blocked, and the other side of trade will suffer losses. Therefore, not only China itself, but also China's overseas trade partners will strive to overcome and promote the lifting of tourism restrictions, and strongly oppose trade restrictions.
If the new coronavirus epidemic can be alleviated significantly by the end of March, it is estimated that some countries will relax tourism restrictions, and the possibility of implementing trade restrictions is less. Therefore, the key is whether China can effectively prevent and control the epidemic as soon as possible.
The impact of the epidemic on import and export trade is also temporary. At present, the interests of people's life and health are higher than those of import and export. Therefore, different ways of isolation, postponement of resumption of work and reduction of contact cannot be relaxed even if they temporarily affect production and trade.
But on the other hand, according to the existing arrangement, after the enterprise returns to work 9 days later, the performance of the existing contract can be completely carried out as before, or a small part of it can be delayed due to force majeure. Even if the enterprise has a holiday, the shipment of many port goods has not stopped, and the import has not stopped. A large number of urgently needed medical supplies and foreign donated materials enter through the customs source.
During SARS in 2003, import and export trade slowed down significantly in the second quarter. But it grew rapidly in the second half of the year after the outbreak ended. The annual import and export trade volume increased by 37.1% over the previous year, the highest growth rate since the 1980s, and has not been broken so far.
Of course, we don't want to compare the growth rate with that of 2003, just to prove that there is usually a strong rebound after the epidemic. The key remains how long the outbreak lasts. If the second quarter starts to return to normal, the annual total import and export volume will not have a significant impact.
There are objective laws governing the production, import and export of commodities. As the undertaker, the enterprise can only realize social expansion and reproduction in the production or trade of products, otherwise its own survival and development will become a problem. After natural or social disasters, enterprises must also make up for them quickly, so production and trade often rebound.
But it's not enough to see the general rules. At present, the most urgent problem is to help production and trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, quickly and accurately. Due to the impact of the epidemic, many enterprises stop production and stop work, and have no income, but the employees' wages are still paid, the cost of plant office and equipment maintenance cannot be reduced, and the burden of rent and interest is still the same. The tension of the capital chain directly affects the purchase and production of raw materials after the resumption of work and the ability to pay the import advance deposit.
What's more, before the outbreak of new coronavirus, the whole industrial production profit of our country has been reduced, and the cost has increased, which brings great difficulties to the import and export trade operation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the government to provide support in finance, taxation, credit, social welfare and other aspects. Such support can only be one policy for one place, one policy for one enterprise, and it must also take into account the current and long-term, not to drink poison to quench thirst, and significantly increase the debt ratio of enterprises.
At the same time of doing domestic work well, we also need to do foreign work well. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy and trade will have a "very sluggish" temporary recovery in 2020. Global GDP will grow by 3.3%, higher than 2.9% in 2019; the growth rate of world trade in goods and services will rise to 2.9% from the extremely low level of 1.0% in 2019.
But the group warned that such a recovery was fragile, and that various unilateral tariffs and restrictions, trade tensions and the accumulation of financial market risks could bring new risks at any time. The multilateral trading system is at a critical juncture. Our external environment is not relaxed. Therefore, we must not only win the domestic epidemic prevention and control war, but also win the war of maintaining multilateralism and stabilizing the international trade environment.
He Weiwen, former economic and Commercial Counsellor of Consulate General in San Francisco and New York, senior researcher of Chongyang Institute of finance, Renmin University of China