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注意!外贸形势开始承压!出口高增速的拐点已现,中国的机会在哪里?Notice! The foreign trade situation has begun to come under pressure! The inflection point of high export growth has come, where are the opportunities for China?
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9日国家统计局公布,中国8月CPI同比增长2.5%,预期为2.8%,前值为2.7%;8月PPI同比增长2.3%,预期为3.2%,前值为4.2%。两者数据涨幅均有所回落,这说明我国的经济面在不断向好,那么我国外贸形势如何呢? 外贸形势开始有所承压 中信证券研报指出,8月义乌疫情叠加部分地区的限电等因素的扰动,出口增速显著放缓。以上因素在9月均有所改善,预计9月出口增速可能会出现小幅反弹。中国主要贸易伙伴制造业PMI持续处于下行通道,预计中国出口也将趋势性回落。 但在海外能源问题持续扰动的背景下,中国部分工业品的出口替代效应可能会进一步加强,对出口还有一定支撑。后续国内出口增速的中枢下移也将是渐进缓慢的。 有观点认为出口高增速的拐点已现,我国外贸进出口承压。 中泰证券研报观点称,8月份我国出口增速较7月有所回落,一方面,去年同期基数抬升明显,高基数效应压制本月出口增速;另一方面,海外经济显著放缓,因疫情积压的交货订单或已出清,难以支撑外需维持高位。 不过,光大银行金融市场部宏观研究员周茂华认为,我国出口将继续保持韧性,进口会逐步改善,但预计增速仍将维持低位,“未来几个月我国外贸将呈现出口强、进口弱、贸易顺差高的格局。” 欧洲扩大采暖电器采购 但有一个市场需要特别注意,那就是欧洲市场。说到这里,就有不少人疑惑了,欧洲央行都已经史无前例地将三大关键利率单次上调了75个基点,经济增速预期也下调,那么该市场有什么机会呢? 要知道,在俄乌冲突等因素的影响下,欧洲出现了能源危机,在经过漫长的酷暑之后,严冬将至,欧洲人民该如何度过?众所周知,有危就有机,近期欧洲的紧张能源,正刺激了节能类、取暖类电器的需求。 根据欧盟统计局数据,2022年截至7月,欧盟能源价格通胀年增长率达38.3%,其中天然气和电力价格通胀年增长率分别达52.2%和31.1%。8月以来,能源价格持续高速增长。 根据欧洲电力交易所数据,8月30日欧洲电力系统均价为462.1欧元/兆瓦时,较年初增幅高达6倍;8月26日,荷兰TTF基准天然气期货收盘价格为339.195欧元/兆瓦时,较年初增幅高达5倍。 中国家用电器协会公布数据,今年以来,中国向欧洲出口的电暖器、电热毯等取暖类电器数量激增。 据悉,欧洲市场一直是中国家电出口的增长引擎,近六年来增长持续向好,2021年出口额为295.4亿美元,增长34.4%,占中国家电业出口总额比重为28.3%。 从家电产品细分品类看,增长的品类主要包括空调、电热水器、电暖器、电热毯、电吹风,1-7月累计出口额规模分别为19.9亿美元、1.3亿美元、4.9亿美元、3340万美元、1.6亿美元,其中电热毯以97%的增速引领其他品类。 中国家用电器协会信息咨询部相关人士认为,这些高增长的品类都具有温度调节的作用,说明欧洲消费者明显在扩大采暖类产品的采购,为即将到来的冬季做储备。 空气源热泵出口潜力巨大 另外,使用了绿色能源的空气源热泵呈现爆发式增长,表现非常亮眼,整体延续了2021年的高速增长态势。 中国目前是欧洲空气源热泵的主要供应国,市场占比达60%;多个欧洲国家市场呈爆发式增长,上半年中国对保加利亚、波兰、意大利、西班牙出口空气源热泵的金额增幅分别高达614%、373%、198%、71%。 据悉,2021年,中国出口欧洲的空气源热泵约200多万台。业内乐观预期,今后中国空气源热泵产品的出口量将会突破千万台。美国、加拿大、意大利、德国、英国等多个欧美国家,均对空气源热泵的推广出台了有力的补贴政策。 欧洲对安装一台空气源热泵的补贴,最高可达5000欧元,分批次落实。 产业在线分析认为,由于目前全球对空气源热泵产品的需求在不断增长,预计空气源热泵出口2022全年至少保持50%以上的增长速度。 信达证券测算,未来欧洲市场户用热泵市场空间将达3773万台,叠加更新和商业、工业用热泵需求,预计未来欧洲市场热泵的长期市场需求量将超过4000万台。 On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's CPI in August increased by 2.5% year-on-year, compared with the expected 2.8%, and the previous value was 2.7%; the PPI in August increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared with the expected 3.2%, and the previous value was 4.2%. Both the data growth rates have dropped, which shows that my country's economic situation is constantly improving, so what is the situation of my country's foreign trade? The foreign trade situation has begun to come under pressure The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the epidemic in Yiwu in August was superimposed by the disturbance of factors such as power cuts in some areas, and the growth rate of exports slowed down significantly. The above factors all improved in September, and it is expected that the export growth rate may rebound slightly in September. The manufacturing PMI of China's major trading partners continues to be in a downward channel, and it is expected that China's exports will also trend down. However, in the context of the continuous disturbance of overseas energy issues, the export substitution effect of some industrial products in China may be further strengthened, and there is still a certain support for exports. The subsequent downward shift of the domestic export growth rate will also be gradual and slow. Some people believe that the inflection point of high export growth has come, and my country's foreign trade imports and exports are under pressure. According to the research report of Zhongtai Securities, the growth rate of my country's exports in August was lower than that of July. On the one hand, the base rose significantly in the same period last year, and the high base effect suppressed export growth this month; on the other hand, the overseas economy slowed down significantly. Due to the backlog of delivery orders due to the epidemic, it may have been cleared, and it is difficult to support the high level of external demand. However, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that my country's exports will continue to remain resilient and imports will gradually improve, but the growth rate is expected to remain low. "In the next few months, my country's foreign trade will show strong exports, weak imports and a trade surplus high profile." Europe expands procurement of heating appliances But there is one market that needs special attention, and that is the European market. Speaking of this, many people are puzzled. The European Central Bank has unprecedentedly raised the three key interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, and the economic growth forecast has also been lowered. So what opportunities does this market have? You must know that under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other factors, there has been an energy crisis in Europe. After a long scorching summer, the severe winter is approaching. How should the European people survive? As we all know, when there is danger, there is opportunity. The recent shortage of energy in Europe is stimulating the demand for energy-saving and heating appliances. According to Eurostat data, as of July 2022, the annual growth rate of EU energy price inflation will reach 38.3%,
注意:多个国家结算有大动作Note: There are big moves for settlement in multiple countries
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据央视新闻报道,当地时间18日晚,俄罗斯总统普京抵达伊朗首都德黑兰。19日,普京将同伊朗总统莱希等高级官员举行会谈,并将参加俄、土、伊叙利亚问题阿斯塔纳进程首脑会议。 据环球网报道,就在同日,俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫还对伊朗国家广播电台表示,俄罗斯和伊朗未来将不会在双边交易中使用美元。他表示,俄伊贸易去年已经突破了40亿美元,随着双边金融合作的深化,未来两国将逐步弃用美元结算。此外,俄罗斯正寻求让部分印度客户用阿联酋货币迪拉姆来支付石油出口款项。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫此前曾表示,俄罗斯希望在与印度等国的贸易中增加使用非西方货币。 另据央视报道,尼日利亚驻俄罗斯大使阿卜杜拉希·谢胡18日在接受俄罗斯媒体采访时表示,尼日利亚银行正与俄罗斯银行就两国间以本币进行贸易结算开展谈判。 不久前,印度央行推出国际贸易的卢比结算机制,立即生效。印度央行在其官方网站公布,以卢比结算进出口货物的发票、支付和结算,是为了促进全球贸易的增长,提高全球贸易界对印度卢比的兴趣,促进印度的出口。 俄罗斯:和伊朗将在双边交易中放弃美元 据央视新闻19日援引伊朗国家电视台(IRIB)消息,当地时间18日晚,俄罗斯总统普京抵达伊朗首都德黑兰。据环球网报道,俄卫星通讯社称,俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫就俄总统普京将访问伊朗一事表示,莫斯科和德黑兰是可靠的朋友和伙伴。他说,两国将逐步放弃用美元来评估双边贸易体量的做法。“我们都知道,去年两国间的贸易和经济总额超过40亿美元,尽管用美元来计算(这个数字)可能是错误的,随着时间的推移,随着我们在银行业金融领域的合作发展,我们可能会放弃这种做法。”佩斯科夫在接受伊朗国家广播电台采访时表示。这段采访内容也在“俄罗斯24”电视台播出。佩斯科夫还说,过去几个月里,俄罗斯和伊朗之间的贸易趋势走向积极。他认为,俄罗斯和伊朗有机会建立合作,以减轻制裁带来的影响。 俄寻求让印度买家用阿联酋货币支付石油款 据媒体报道,俄罗斯正寻求让部分印度客户用阿联酋货币迪拉姆来支付石油出口款项。媒体看到的一张发票显示,一家印度炼油厂的俄油采购账单虽然以美元计价,但却被要求用迪拉姆支付。发票还显示,俄罗斯天然气工业银行(Gazprombank)将通过其在迪拜的代理银行Mashreq Bank来获得支付款。消息人士称,目前至少有两家印度炼油厂已经用迪拉姆支付了部分款项,未来几天将有更多的炼油商通过该货币支付石油款项。今年6月,俄罗斯连续第二个月取代沙特阿拉伯,成为仅次于伊拉克的印度第二大石油供应国。据悉,俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫今年4月表示,俄罗斯希望在与印度等国的贸易中增加使用非西方货币。该国财政部长上月还表示,该国可能会开始购买“友好”国家的货币,并用这些货币来影响美元和欧元的汇率,以抑制卢布大幅升值。俄印贸易使用第三方货币支付也并非头一回。据媒体报道,印度最大的水泥生产商超科水泥此前进口一批俄罗斯煤炭时使用了人民币进行付款。上述举动表明俄罗斯正加速“去美元化”,以将西方制裁的影响降至最低。 尼日利亚银行与俄商讨以本币进行贸易结算 据央视新闻19日消息,尼日利亚驻俄罗斯大使阿卜杜拉希·谢胡18日在接受俄罗斯媒体采访时表示,尼日利亚银行正与俄罗斯银行就两国间以本币进行贸易结算开展谈判,此外,双方还讨论了接入俄罗斯央行开发的金融信息传输系统的可能性。今年2月26日,美国等国家宣布将部分俄罗斯银行排除在环球银行间金融通信协会(SWIFT)运营的国际金融信息交换系统之外,并对俄罗斯央行实施限制措施。6月29日,俄罗斯央行发布消息称,已有来自12个国家的70家银行等机构接入了俄央行开发的金融信息传输系统。 印度央行推出国际贸易的卢比结算机制 7月11日,印度央行推出国际贸易的卢比结算机制,立即生效。印度央行在其官方网站公布,以卢比结算进出口货物的发票、支付和结算,是为了促进全球贸易的增长,提高全球贸易界对印度卢比的兴趣,促进印度的出口。今年上半年,西方将俄罗斯踢出SWIFT系统、禁止俄金融机构进行美元交易等措施,导致印度对俄贸易商无法正常收到的货款额在3月初便达到5亿美元。印度储备银行(中央银行)着手与俄罗斯方面就缔结贸易协定进行磋商,该协定将规定直接以卢布和卢比进行贸易结算。香港中睿基金首席经济学家徐阳在接受媒体采访时指出,印度最新推出的这项机制,对于去除美元霸权的影响有着重要推动作用,美元霸权的收割效应在各主要经济体货币国际化的进程中将进一步减弱。 专家谈俄罗斯、印度“去美元化” 对于俄罗斯以及印度的“去美元化”行动,中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲指出,就美元作为储备货币的占比而言,其在国际外汇储备中达到60%左右,一支独大。当前,全球潮流和舆论导向偏于去美元化,包括美国国债抛售论等,在此场合下,大家容易出现误判。若对金融循环判断过于简单,潜在风险未来爆发的可能性较大。从卢比结算机制的推出过程来看,或许这与俄罗斯的资源要素有较大关系。相对于俄罗斯是石油供给大国,印度是石油、煤炭需求大国,其石油对外依存度超过80%。此时,卢比若参与俄罗斯去美元化结算,俄罗斯对印度的石油、煤炭出口或许将提供更多便捷。事实上,俄罗斯的卢布令推出后,目前并未达到预期效果。美国与俄罗斯的石油交易是美元而非卢布结算,欧盟与俄罗斯的能源交易也并非全是卢布。因此,想法、现实以及执行三者之间大为迥异。大家讨论货币结算方式时候忽略了一个逻辑,即本币国际化,重点不是将本币推向国际,而是国际接不接受,多边机构是否认可。 According to CCTV news reports, on the evening of the 18th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tehran, the capital of Iran. On the 19th, Putin will hold talks with Iranian President Rahey and other senior officials, and will participate in the Astana Process Summit on Russia, Turkey and Syria. According to the World Wide Web report, on the same day, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov also told the Iranian State Radio that Russia and Iran will not use U.S. dollars in bilateral transactions in the future. He said that Russia-Iran trade has exceeded 4 billion US dollars last year. With the deepening of bilateral financial cooperation, the two countries will gradually abandon US dollar settlement in the future. In addition, Russia is seeking to allow some Indian customers to pay for oil exports in the UAE currency, the dirham. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has previously said that Russia wants to increase the use of non-Western currencies in trade with countries such as India. According to another CCTV report, Abdullahi Shehu, Nigerian ambassador to Russia, said in an interview with Russian media on the 18th that Nigerian banks are negotiating with Russian banks on trade settlement in local currency between the two countries. Not long ago, the RBI launched a rupee settlement mechanism for international trade, effective immediately. The RBI announced on its official website that the settlement of invoices, payments and settlements of imported and exported goods in rupees is to promote the growth of global trade, increase the interest of the global trade community in the Indian rupee, and promote exports from India. Russia: Iran and Iran to give up dollar in bilateral deals On the evening of the 18th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tehran, the capital of Iran, according to CCTV News on the 19th, citing Iranian state television (IRIB). According to a report from the World Wide Web, the Russian Satellite News Agency said that Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that Moscow and Tehran are reliable friends and partners on Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Iran. The two countries will gradually abandon the practice of using the dollar to assess the volume of bilateral trade, he said. “We all know that last year the trade and economy between the two countries totaled more than $4 billion, although it may be wrong to calculate (this figure) in dollars, and over time, as our cooperation in banking and finance develops , we may abandon this practice," Peskov said in an interview with Iran's state radio. The interview was also broadcast on "Russia 24" TV. Peskov also said that the tr
出口乌干达提示 | 最新强制性标准清单将于2022年8月1日起实施Tips for exporting to Uganda | The latest list of mandatory standards will be implemented from August 1, 2022
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近日,乌干达国家标准局UNBS(UgandaNationalBureauofStandards)发布了关于最新乌干达强制性标准的公告,这意味着这份最新强制性标准清单内涵盖的所有产品,从2022年8月1日起都需要强制实施乌干达出口前符合性评定方案PVoC(Pre-ExportVerificationofConformity),在出口到乌干达时必须随附一张产品符合性证书CoC(Certificateo
出口沙特提示 | SABER SCoC证书有效期调整为60天Tips for exporting to Saudi Arabia | The validity period of SABER SCoC certificate is adjusted to 60 days
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近日,沙特SABER电子平台更新了相关提示信息,表示为了提升进口产品的安全性,确认将产品批次证书SCoC(ShipmentCertificate)的有效期调整为签发后的60天内。若一份SC证书自签发日起60天内尚未用于清关,则该SC证书将失效,不能用于海关清关。友情提醒各大出口沙特企业,针对申请SCoC,请注意SaberSCoC的时效性,对生效时间做一个合理的把控我们会及时帮助小伙伴们了解和确认最
五月,多国有重要进出口新规落地!In May, important new import and export regulations in many countries were implemented!
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5月落地的外贸新规包括:加大出口退税等政策支持力度多地密集出台对外贸企业扶助政策中国对缅甸RCEP协定税率正式生效缅甸货物进口许可证将须到港前提交埃及叫停814家企业进口权尼泊尔紧急限制进口马来西亚巴生港新规印尼植物源新鲜食品进口新规中国-新西兰自贸协定升级议定书生效实施《电子烟管理办法》正式施行加大出口退税等政策支持力度近日,十部门联合印发《关于进一步加大出口退税支持力度促进外贸平稳发展的通知》
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