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中国外贸该如何保持良好增长?How can China's foreign trade maintain good growth?

【摘要】:
在全球范围内供给与需求多重因素共同作用下,上半年我国对外贸易出现快速增长:18.07万亿元的货物进出口规模创下历史同期最好水平,与2019年同期相比增长了22.8%。截至今年6月,我国月度进出口已连续13个月实现同比正增长,外贸稳增长态势进一步巩固。 随着全球疫情防控逐渐进入常态化,国际市场需求调整,许多制造业国家重启生产,是否会对我国外贸出口形成结构调整压力?外贸快速增长态势还能保持吗?有专家表

在全球范围内供给与需求多重因素共同作用下,上半年我国对外贸易出现快速增长:18.07万亿元的货物进出口规模创下历史同期最好水平,与2019年同期相比增长了22.8%。截至今年6月,我国月度进出口已连续13个月实现同比正增长,外贸稳增长态势进一步巩固。

 

随着全球疫情防控逐渐进入常态化,国际市场需求调整,许多制造业国家重启生产,是否会对我国外贸出口形成结构调整压力?外贸快速增长态势还能保持吗?有专家表示,尽管下半年国际供需缺口出现变化,但仍有可能通过针对性的政策及切实降低外贸企业综合成本等举措,将目前外贸良好增长的态势保持下去。

供应链适应国际变化

全球疫情暴发以来,我国外贸在服务保障各国人民生产生活的创造性实践中,综合竞争力得到进一步锤炼和提升。一方面,全球经济复苏对国际贸易及我国产品出口起到提振作用。另一方面,我国经济整体内生动力在持续增强,主要经济指标持续向好,生产需求继续回升,为外贸稳增长奠定了坚实基础,稳外贸政策红利持续释放,更为外贸发展创造了有利条件。

“以人民币计,1月至6月中国外贸进出口增长27.1%,规模创历史新高,这是全球范围内供给与需求多重因素共同作用的结果。”商务部对外贸易司司长李兴乾不久前表示,上半年外贸快速增长最关键的因素,是需求牵引供给。

疫情导致国际市场出现了巨大的供需缺口,中国外贸供应链体系能够快速适应国际市场需求变化,及时提供适销对路的产品,满足各国各地区防疫和生产生活需要。从口罩、防护服、检测试剂盒乃至疫苗,再到服务于各国民众居家办公和生活需要,中国外贸企业充分调动生产资源,提高研发设计水平,加强产品质量监控,出口了大量优质消费品。

除了数量增长之外,上半年外贸高质量发展也取得明显成果。比如,高水平开放平台增长迅速。上半年,我国综合保税区、自由贸易试验区、海南自由贸易港进出口增速均显著高于我国外贸总体增速。同时,市场主体活力明显增强。有进出口实际企业47.9万家,增长8.1%。民营企业进出口增长35.1%,高于外贸整体增速8个百分点。此外,新业态新模式加快培育、对主要贸易伙伴较快增长、商品结构更趋优化、服务贸易创新发展等特点也较突出。

 

环境改善挑战仍存

 

随着全球新冠疫苗接种进度加快,部分国家已经出现经济回暖,生产逐步恢复,这对中国外贸既是挑战也是机遇。挑战是,我国出口将面临市场竞争的加剧;机遇是,这些变化恰是中国外贸产业链、供应链更好适应国际市场需求,提升竞争力的机会和动力。

“上半年,我国外贸强劲增长一方面表现为高出口增速,另一方面是占世界份额的增加。”中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员苏庆义在接受记者采访时表示,随着全球经济形势变化,供需缺口会缩减。尽管不如上半年,但我国下半年外贸面临的总体情况依然较为乐观。

商务部研究院国际市场所副主任、研究员许英明则认为,下半年国际市场供需缺口将会有所缓解,但依然较大,供给端复苏速度仍不及需求端。

“外贸高速增长有国际订单转移的因素,国外产业链由于疫情中断,去年以来部分国际订单转向我国。”中国宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所研究员杨长湧表示,疫情形势好转,国外产业链供应链恢复,并不意味着订单会重新转出去。“尽管国外产能逐渐恢复,但是从国际贸易运作规律和跨国公司防风险的规律来看,不会出现大规模订单转移现象”。

商务部外贸司近期监测的情况显示,约40%的外贸企业新签出口订单同比增长。外部需求回暖、国内经济稳中向好将继续支撑我国外贸发展。

 

着力解决“一箱难求”问题

 

 

随着去年同期基数逐步抬高,下半年外贸增速将有所回落,外贸发展仍面临诸多不确定、不稳定因素。原材料价格高企、海运物流不畅等问题进一步挤压外贸企业利润空间,也影响企业接单意愿。对此,李兴乾表示,我国下半年将重点围绕企业面临的突出困难和问题,研究出台更有针对性的政策举措,切实降低外贸企业综合成本。

许英明认为,下半年要全力做好大宗商品保供稳价工作,“一方面,继续投放国家储备,并向中小企业有所倾斜,增加有效供给,稳定原材料价格。另一方面,密切跟踪大宗商品价格走势,加强原材料市场预期引导。”同时,着力解决“一箱难求”“一舱难求”等难题。支持企业提升集装箱产量,进一步主动扩大进口。鼓励海运企业、船公司、港口加强合作,引导企业增加主要海运航线临时船舶的运行次数。此外,落实好对外贸市场主体尤其是中小微企业的支持政策。落实对中小出口企业税费、金融支持政策,支持各类市场主体特别是中小微外贸企业稳定生产。

专家表示,在新发展阶段,我国构建新发展格局意味着不能再靠传统优惠政策提振出口。在稳定出口部门就业的前提下,更重要的是提升企业竞争力,切实做好扩大内需的工作。要坚定不移构建新发展格局,不因外部环境而改变自身的中长期目标。

Under the combined action of multiple factors of global supply and demand, China's foreign trade increased rapidly in the first half of the year: the import and export scale of 18.07 trillion yuan of goods hit the best level in the same period in history, an increase of 22.8% compared with the same period in 2019. As of June this year, China's monthly import and export has achieved positive year-on-year growth for 13 consecutive months, and the steady growth trend of foreign trade has been further consolidated.
With the gradual normalization of global epidemic prevention and control, the adjustment of international market demand and the restart of production in many manufacturing countries, will there be pressure on China's foreign trade export to form structural adjustment? Can the rapid growth of foreign trade be maintained? Some experts said that although the international supply-demand gap changed in the second half of the year, it is still possible to maintain the current good growth trend of foreign trade through targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive cost of foreign trade enterprises.
Supply chain adapts to international changes
Since the outbreak of the global epidemic, the comprehensive competitiveness of China's foreign trade has been further tempered and improved in the creative practice of serving and ensuring the production and life of people all over the world. On the one hand, the global economic recovery has boosted international trade and China's product exports. On the other hand, the overall endogenous power of China's economy continues to increase, the main economic indicators continue to improve, the production demand continues to pick up, which has laid a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade, and the dividends of the steady foreign trade policy continue to be released, creating favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade.
"In terms of RMB, China's foreign trade import and export increased by 27.1% from January to June, with a record scale, which is the result of the combined action of multiple factors of supply and demand worldwide." Li Xingqian, director of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce, said not long ago that the most critical factor in the rapid growth of foreign trade in the first half of the year was demand pulling supply.
The epidemic has led to a huge gap between supply and demand in the international market. China's foreign trade supply chain system can quickly adapt to the changes in international market demand, provide marketable products in time, and meet the epidemic prevention, production and living needs of all countries and regions. From masks, protective clothing, test kits and even vaccines to serving the home, office and living needs of people all over the world, China's foreign trade enterprises have fully mobilized production resources, improved the level of R & D and design, strengthened product quality monitoring, and exported a large number of high-quality consumer goods.
In addition to the quantitative growth, the high-quality development of foreign trade also achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year. For example, high-level open platforms are growing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the import and export growth of China's comprehensive bonded zone, free trade pilot zone and Hainan free trade port were significantly higher than the overall growth of China's foreign trade. At the same time, the vitality of market players has increased significantly. There were 479000 actual import and export enterprises, an increase of 8.1%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 35.1%, 8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. In addition, the characteristics of accelerating the cultivation of new business forms and new models, rapid growth for major trading partners, more optimized commodity structure, innovative development of service trade and so on are also prominent.
Environmental improvement challenges remain
With the acceleration of global new crown vaccination, the economy of some countries has recovered and production has gradually recovered, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for China's foreign trade. The challenge is that China's export will face the intensification of market competition; The opportunity is that these changes are the opportunity and driving force for China's foreign trade industry chain and supply chain to better adapt to the needs of the international market and enhance competitiveness.
"In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade grew strongly. On the one hand, it showed high export growth, on the other hand, it increased its share in the world." Su Qingyi, a researcher at the Institute of world economy and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that with the changes in the global economic situation, the supply-demand gap will shrink. Although not as good as the first half of the year, the overall situation of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year is still optimistic.
Xu Yingming, deputy director and researcher of the international market Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the supply-demand gap in the international market will be alleviated in the second half of the year, but it is still large, and the recovery speed of the supply side is still lower than that of the demand side.
"The rapid growth of foreign trade is due to the transfer of international orders. Due to the interruption of the epidemic situation in foreign industrial chains, some international orders have turned to China since last year." Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of foreign economics of the Chinese Academy of macroeconomic research, said that the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of foreign industrial chain supply chain do not mean that orders will be transferred out again“ Although foreign production capacity is gradually restored, there will be no large-scale order transfer from the perspective of the operation law of international trade and the risk prevention law of multinational companies ".
Recent monitoring by the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce shows that about 40% of foreign trade enterprises have signed new export orders, with a year-on-year increase. The recovery of external demand and the steady improvement of domestic economy will continue to support the development of China's foreign trade.
Strive to solve the problem of "one box is difficult to find"
With the gradual increase of the base in the same period last year, the growth rate of foreign trade will fall in the second half of the year, and the development of foreign trade still faces many uncertain and unstable factors. High raw material prices and poor shipping logistics further squeeze the profit space of foreign trade enterprises and affect the willingness of enterprises to receive orders. In this regard, Li Xingqian said that in the second half of the year, China will focus on the outstanding difficulties and problems faced by enterprises, study and introduce more targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive costs of foreign trade enterprises.
Xu Yingming believes that in the second half of the year, we should make every effort to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. "On the one hand, we should continue to put in national reserves and give preference to small and medium-sized enterprises, increase effective supply and stabilize the price of raw materials. On the other hand, we will closely track the price trend of bulk commodities and strengthen the expected guidance of the raw material market. " At the same time, efforts will be made to solve the problems of "one box is difficult to find" and "one cabin is difficult to find". Support enterprises to increase container production and further take the initiative to expand imports. Encourage shipping enterprises, shipping companies and ports to strengthen cooperation, and guide enterprises to increase the number of temporary ships on major shipping routes. In addition, we will implement support policies for foreign trade market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. We will implement tax and financial support policies for small and medium-sized export enterprises, and support various market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises, to stabilize production.

 

Experts said that in the new development stage, China's construction of a new development pattern means that it can no longer rely on traditional preferential policies to boost exports. On the premise of stabilizing employment in the export sector, it is more important to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and do a good job in expanding domestic demand. We should unswervingly build a new development pattern and not change our medium - and long-term goals due to the external environment.