新一轮稳外贸政策出炉，专家这样解读

发布时间：

2022-09-29

今年1—8月，我国的外贸增速同比增长10.1%。单看8月份，我国外贸增速8.6%，相较于7月下降7.9%。近期，商务部等多部门正在加紧推出新一轮稳外贸的措施。这些措施可以起到哪些作用？稳外贸，还可以从哪些方面发力？FromJanuarytoAugustthisyear,China'sforeigntradegrew10.1%yearonyear.InAugustalone,China'sforei

今年1—8月，我国的外贸增速同比增长10.1%。单看8月份，我国外贸增速8.6%，相较于7月下降7.9%。近期，商务部等多部门正在加紧推出新一轮稳外贸的措施。这些措施可以起到哪些作用？稳外贸，还可以从哪些方面发力？

From January to August this year, China's foreign trade grew 10.1% year on year. In August alone, China's foreign trade grew by 8.6%, down 7.9% from July. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments are stepping up to introduce a new round of measures to stabilize foreign trade. What can these measures do? What else can we do to stabilize foreign trade?

眼下，距离年底还有三个多月，新一轮稳外贸促外贸的措施正在不断推出和实施。9月27日，商务部发布《支持外贸稳定发展若干政策措施》，从保生产保履约等6个方面加力稳定外贸。

At present, more than three months before the end of the year, a new round of measures to stabilize and promote foreign trade is being introduced and implemented. On September 27, the Ministry of Commerce issued Several Policies and Measures to Support the Stable Development of Foreign Trade, which strengthened efforts to stabilize foreign trade from six aspects, including ensuring production and performance.

同日，商务部等6单位印发《海运航空铁路口岸外贸进口货物标准作业程序参考》，重点要解决的，就是在确保防疫安全前提下，提高海运、航空、铁路口岸等环节进口货物的流转效率。如何看待新一轮的稳外贸措施？这些措施可以起到哪些作用？

On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce and other six units issued the Reference to the Standard Operating Procedures for Imported Goods at Sea, Air and Railway Ports for Foreign Trade, focusing on improving the circulation efficiency of imported goods at sea, air and railway ports on the premise of ensuring epidemic prevention safety. How to view the new round of measures to stabilize foreign trade? What can these measures do?

新一轮稳外贸政策，更多着眼于四季度和明年如何稳外贸

The new round of foreign trade stabilization policy focuses more on how to stabilize foreign trade in the fourth quarter and next year

中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生：外贸是一个慢变量，现在出台的一系列稳外贸措施，更多的还是着眼于今年四季度和明年的外贸怎么能够稳住。国际货币基金组织最近出台的报告中指出，今年的全球经济前景“黯淡”，但 2023 年的情况可能会更加严峻。最新的经济合作与发展组织的报告，预测美国经济今年将增长1.5%，明年增速将放缓至0.5%，欧元区经济今年将增长3.1%，明年增速将放缓至0.3%，也就是明年全球经济将下滑甚至陷入衰退的概率越来越大。因此，从这个角度来讲，我们现在出台的各项措施，很大程度是针对今年四季度，尤其是明年如何能够稳定外贸的可持续增长态势。

Zhang Yansheng, Chief Researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges: Foreign trade is a slow variable. A series of measures to stabilize foreign trade have been introduced, focusing more on how to stabilize foreign trade in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. The recent report issued by the International Monetary Fund pointed out that the global economic outlook this year is "bleak", but the situation in 2023 may be more severe. The latest report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.5% this year, the growth rate will slow to 0.5% next year, the euro area economy will grow by 3.1% this year, and the growth rate will slow to 0.3% next year, which means that the probability of the global economy will decline or even fall into recession next year is increasing. Therefore, from this point of view, the measures we are taking are largely aimed at the fourth quarter of this year, especially how to stabilize the sustainable growth of foreign trade next year.

稳外贸，如何应对外需增长放缓的不确定性？

To stabilize foreign trade, how to deal with the uncertainty of slowing growth of foreign demand?

中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生：当前世界经济美国通胀率非常高，欧元区通胀率非常高，为了反通胀，外需萎缩是大概率事件。在这种情况下，今年前8个月，我们的进出口增长最好的地方实际上是“一带一路”，其次是东盟。因此稳外贸首先就是要稳住我们“一带一路”市场的基本盘，要稳住RCEP的三个经济合作区，也就是东盟、日韩和澳新。另外一个方面，我们在最困难的时候对企业是大浪淘沙，也就是企业在这个时候是躺平还是奋进，要奋进的话，大家要抱团取暖，也就是千方百计去争取新的市场、新的产品、新的订单，这些方面是我们外贸企业努力非常重要的。

Zhang Yansheng, Chief Researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges: At present, the inflation rate of the world economy in the United States is very high, and that of the euro area is very high. In order to combat inflation, shrinking external demand is a highly probable event. Under such circumstances, in the first eight months of this year, the place with the best growth in our import and export was actually the "the Belt and Road", followed by ASEAN. Therefore, to stabilize foreign trade, first of all, we should stabilize the basic situation of our "the Belt and Road" market and the three economic cooperation zones of RCEP, namely ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and Australia and New Zealand. On the other hand, when we are in the most difficult situation, we are dealing with the enterprise in a big way, that is, whether the enterprise is lying flat or forging ahead at this time. If we want to forge ahead, we should work together for warmth, that is, we should do everything possible to win new markets, new products and new orders. These aspects are very important for our foreign trade enterprises.

稳外贸，外贸大省如何继续发挥挑大梁作用？

Stabilizing foreign trade, how can foreign trade provinces continue to play the role of a big cantilever?

中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生：今年上半年我到江苏苏州、浙江一些地方去调研时发现，在外需萎缩，外贸形势前景堪忧的情况下，一些外贸大省真正是以创新的思维在“走出去引进来”，而且明显会发现这些外贸大省的企业腾笼换鸟和转型升级的步伐也明显加快，推动外贸高质量发展的力度也明显加大。明显可以看到他们新的产品、新的产业、新的业态、新的模式越来越多，而且在开拓外贸的新市场、新客户方面，能够争取到一些新的更好的订单。

Zhang Yansheng, Chief Researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges: In the first half of this year, when I went to Suzhou, Jiangsu and Zhejiang for research, I found that under the circumstances of shrinking external demand and worrying foreign trade situation, some major foreign trade provinces are really "going out and bringing in" with innovative thinking, and it is obvious that enterprises in these major foreign trade provinces are also speeding up their transformation and upgrading, Efforts to promote high-quality development of foreign trade have also been significantly increased. It is obvious that they have more and more new products, new industries, new formats and new models, and can win some new and better orders in terms of opening up new markets and new customers for foreign trade.

稳外贸，外贸大省如何持续发力？

To stabilize foreign trade, how can a large province of foreign trade continue to develop its strength?

数据显示，今年前8个月，中国进出口规模27.3万亿人民币中，广东、江苏、浙江、上海、北京、山东、福建等7个省（市）的进出口，就占到了20.54万亿元，对全国外贸增长的贡献超过7成。四季度，外贸大省如何持续发力，更好地发挥挑大梁作用？

The data shows that in the first eight months of this year, the import and export of seven provinces (cities) including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Shandong and Fujian accounted for 20.54 trillion yuan of China's 27.3 trillion yuan import and export scale, contributing more than 70% to the growth of foreign trade across the country. In the fourth quarter, how can the major foreign trade provinces continue to make efforts to better play their role as a cantilever?

稳外贸，更要稳预期

Stabilize foreign trade, but also stabilize expectations

中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生：当前的国际环境，一个是全球化陷入停滞，另一个是贸易投资减速，还有一个就是供应链、产业链、贸易链出现逆流，就是“去中国化”。在这种情况下，我们怎么能够在外贸的产业链、供应链、价值链方面，能挂钩不脱钩、合作不对抗、开放不封闭，我觉得我们还是要争取和世界的贸易伙伴有更多合作，这一点对我们的下一步发展非常关键。

Zhang Yansheng, Chief Researcher of China International Economic Exchange Center: The current international environment is characterized by the stagnation of globalization, the slowdown of trade and investment, and the countercurrent of supply chain, industrial chain and trade chain, namely "de localization". In this case, how can we link up the industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain of foreign trade without decoupling, cooperation without confrontation, and openness without closing? I think we should strive for more cooperation with the world's trading partners, which is crucial to our next development.

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商务部召开例行新闻发布会，近期有哪些经贸热点值得关注？The Ministry of Commerce holds a regular press conference. What are the recent economic and trade hotspots that deserve attention?

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