Under the combined action of multiple factors of global supply and demand, China's foreign trade increased rapidly in the first half of the year: the import and export scale of 18.07 trillion yuan of goods hit the best level in the same period in history, an increase of 22.8% compared with the same period in 2019. As of June this year, China's monthly import and export has achieved positive year-on-year growth for 13 consecutive months, and the steady growth trend of foreign trade has been further consolidated.
With the gradual normalization of global epidemic prevention and control, the adjustment of international market demand and the restart of production in many manufacturing countries, will there be pressure on China's foreign trade export to form structural adjustment? Can the rapid growth of foreign trade be maintained? Some experts said that although the international supply-demand gap changed in the second half of the year, it is still possible to maintain the current good growth trend of foreign trade through targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive cost of foreign trade enterprises.
Supply chain adapts to international changes
Since the outbreak of the global epidemic, the comprehensive competitiveness of China's foreign trade has been further tempered and improved in the creative practice of serving and ensuring the production and life of people all over the world. On the one hand, the global economic recovery has boosted international trade and China's product exports. On the other hand, the overall endogenous power of China's economy continues to increase, the main economic indicators continue to improve, the production demand continues to pick up, which has laid a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade, and the dividends of the steady foreign trade policy continue to be released, creating favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade.
"In terms of RMB, China's foreign trade import and export increased by 27.1% from January to June, with a record scale, which is the result of the combined action of multiple factors of supply and demand worldwide." Li Xingqian, director of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce, said not long ago that the most critical factor in the rapid growth of foreign trade in the first half of the year was demand pulling supply.
The epidemic has led to a huge gap between supply and demand in the international market. China's foreign trade supply chain system can quickly adapt to the changes in international market demand, provide marketable products in time, and meet the epidemic prevention, production and living needs of all countries and regions. From masks, protective clothing, test kits and even vaccines to serving the home, office and living needs of people all over the world, China's foreign trade enterprises have fully mobilized production resources, improved the level of R & D and design, strengthened product quality monitoring, and exported a large number of high-quality consumer goods.
In addition to the quantitative growth, the high-quality development of foreign trade also achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year. For example, high-level open platforms are growing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the import and export growth of China's comprehensive bonded zone, free trade pilot zone and Hainan free trade port were significantly higher than the overall growth of China's foreign trade. At the same time, the vitality of market players has increased significantly. There were 479000 actual import and export enterprises, an increase of 8.1%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 35.1%, 8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. In addition, the characteristics of accelerating the cultivation of new business forms and new models, rapid growth for major trading partners, more optimized commodity structure, innovative development of service trade and so on are also prominent.
Environmental improvement challenges remain
With the acceleration of global new crown vaccination, the economy of some countries has recovered and production has gradually recovered, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for China's foreign trade. The challenge is that China's export will face the intensification of market competition; The opportunity is that these changes are the opportunity and driving force for China's foreign trade industry chain and supply chain to better adapt to the needs of the international market and enhance competitiveness.
"In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade grew strongly. On the one hand, it showed high export growth, on the other hand, it increased its share in the world." Su Qingyi, a researcher at the Institute of world economy and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that with the changes in the global economic situation, the supply-demand gap will shrink. Although not as good as the first half of the year, the overall situation of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year is still optimistic.
Xu Yingming, deputy director and researcher of the international market Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the supply-demand gap in the international market will be alleviated in the second half of the year, but it is still large, and the recovery speed of the supply side is still lower than that of the demand side.
"The rapid growth of foreign trade is due to the transfer of international orders. Due to the interruption of the epidemic situation in foreign industrial chains, some international orders have turned to China since last year." Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of foreign economics of the Chinese Academy of macroeconomic research, said that the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of foreign industrial chain supply chain do not mean that orders will be transferred out again“ Although foreign production capacity is gradually restored, there will be no large-scale order transfer from the perspective of the operation law of international trade and the risk prevention law of multinational companies ".
Recent monitoring by the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce shows that about 40% of foreign trade enterprises have signed new export orders, with a year-on-year increase. The recovery of external demand and the steady improvement of domestic economy will continue to support the development of China's foreign trade.
Strive to solve the problem of "one box is difficult to find"
With the gradual increase of the base in the same period last year, the growth rate of foreign trade will fall in the second half of the year, and the development of foreign trade still faces many uncertain and unstable factors. High raw material prices and poor shipping logistics further squeeze the profit space of foreign trade enterprises and affect the willingness of enterprises to receive orders. In this regard, Li Xingqian said that in the second half of the year, China will focus on the outstanding difficulties and problems faced by enterprises, study and introduce more targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive costs of foreign trade enterprises.
Xu Yingming believes that in the second half of the year, we should make every effort to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. "On the one hand, we should continue to put in national reserves and give preference to small and medium-sized enterprises, increase effective supply and stabilize the price of raw materials. On the other hand, we will closely track the price trend of bulk commodities and strengthen the expected guidance of the raw material market. " At the same time, efforts will be made to solve the problems of "one box is difficult to find" and "one cabin is difficult to find". Support enterprises to increase container production and further take the initiative to expand imports. Encourage shipping enterprises, shipping companies and ports to strengthen cooperation, and guide enterprises to increase the number of temporary ships on major shipping routes. In addition, we will implement support policies for foreign trade market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. We will implement tax and financial support policies for small and medium-sized export enterprises, and support various market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises, to stabilize production.
Experts said that in the new development stage, China's construction of a new development pattern means that it can no longer rely on traditional preferential policies to boost exports. On the premise of stabilizing employment in the export sector, it is more important to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and do a good job in expanding domestic demand. We should unswervingly build a new development pattern and not change our medium - and long-term goals due to the external environment.